Scenarioplanning - social futures


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Quiz - Will your job be replacedby AI

Abductive reasoning

Abductive, form of reasoning related to what might be and suggest possibilities.  

Peirce's Three Types of Reasoning: Deduction, induction and abduction.

Charles Sanders Peirce - pragmaticism
Peirce defined the concept of abductive reasoning. 
Peirce examined three basic modes of inference: abduction, deduction, and induction. 
Abduction merely suggests that something may be.
Peirce's three-phase dynamic of inquiry:
1: Active, abductive genesis of theory, with no prior assurance of truth.
2: Deductive application of the contingent theory so as to clarify its practical implications.
3: Inductive testing of the provisional theory in anticipation of future experience.

Abductive reasoning

Design is always about synthesis  
Jeff Veen, founder of Adaptive Path, has noted that "Good designers can create normalcy out of chaos.
Jim Wicks explains that "design is always about synthesis - synthesis of market needs, technology trends, and business needs.

Adversarial Design

Carl DiSalvo 2012: Adversarial Design
An exploration of the political qualities of technology design, as seen in projects that span art, computer science, and consumer products. ...
“adversarial design,” that uses the means and forms of design to challenge beliefs, values, and what is taken to be fact. It is not simply applying design to politics - attempting to improve governance for example, by redesigning ballots and polling places; it is implicitly contestational and strives to question conventional approaches to political issues.
... which include computational visualizations of networks of power and influence, therapy robots that shape sociability, and everyday objects embedded with microchips that enable users to circumvent surveillance. 

Jura og AI

Jura og AI nyheder 

Artificial Lawyer

Smart Legal Contracts on the IBM Blockchain Platform – by Dan Selman, CTO at Smart Contract Pioneers, 
Deploy a business network that invokes a Smart Legal Contract hosted on the Clause platform. ... 

Wolters Kluwer Tax & Accounting has announced that its recently launched CCH AnswerConnect natural language processing (NLP) expert system for tax experts. ... 

Jura og Blockchain


What Really Is Blockchain and Why Does It Matter to Lawyers?
Nobody can be trusted to hold the single copy of a contract, and so the remedy is massively redundant systems. Blockchain solves this problem of authenticity and uniqueness of contracts just as it does for Bitcoin, ... David Fisher is a co-founder of the Global Legal Blockchain Consortium

Blockchain links  
Don Tapscott and Alex Tapscott  How Blockchain Will Change Organizations.
When Will Blockchain and Smart Contracts Be Important in Legal? kilde. 
Coalition of Automated Legal Application, COALA’s Blockchain Economics Working.
Thinking Through Law and Code, Again. Lawrence Lessig - COALA's Blockchain Workshops, video. 

Kunstig Intelligens - Morgendagens Job og Samfund
Rapport til SIRI-Kommissionen

USA status  
The Administration’s Report on the Future of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy

Wild cards

A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises? Oliver Markley 2011
... A four-level typology of wild cards, leading to a systematic methodology for monitoring the emerging awareness and credibility of high probability disruptors and for assessment of stakeholder-specific views about them. ... 

Drivers of Global Change

Al Gore: The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change ...
1. The World of Work in the New Global Economy.
2. Power: The Shifting of Power from Nation-States        to Multinational Corporations.
3. The Internet: The Global Mind. 
4. Biotechnology. 
5. Demographics and Natural Resource Depletion.
6. Climate Change. ... 

Middle class

Global middle class
Umunna, Chuka eds. 2014: Owning the Future 
... There are huge opportunities for Britain in a world where the global middle class is expected to treble to five billion people in the next two decades. ... Contributions focus on the changing global context – how Britain should prepare for success with the BRIC and MINT economies. ... 

Muslim Middle Class
Nasr, Vali 2009: Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World ... 

Sir Martin Rees: Our Final Hour 
... How Terror, Error, and Environmental
Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future. 
www.tecnos.cienciassociais.ufg.b ... pdf

Michio Kaku 2011: Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100


Blockchain For Journalism 
What Could Blockchain Do for Journalism?

Can Civil’s Blockchain Save Journalism? 
The $5 million comes from ConsenSys, a top developer of Ethereum, the blockchain platform that Civil is based on ...

Civil is the decentralized marketplace for sustainable journalism.

Civil, along with the News Integrity Initiative and the European Journalism Centre (EJC), today announced the Engaged Journalism Accelerator. It’s a new program focused on supporting sustainable European journalism initiatives. ... 

Local Independent Online News Publishers

Richard Susskind

Tomorrow's Lawyers 
Richard Susskind 2017: Tomorrow's Lawyers
An Introduction to Your Future. Second Edition. 
... A new diagram to depict the evolution of legal service with accompanying discussion ... New examples of disruptive legal technologies ... ...

Susskind blog  
Oxford Law Vox podcast Richard Susskind talks to George Miller about the gaining momentum of technology and AI in the law profession. ... 

Susskind, Richard  and Daniel Susskind 2015: The Future of the Professions. How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts. Oxford University Press.
The first book to challenge the relevance of the professions in the 21st century. Describes how technology will transform the work of all professionals. Urges readers to rethink the way that expertise is shared in society.

Presents ground-breaking thinking on the future of work and artificial intelligence. Outlines the people and systems that, in the long term, will replace the professions.


Susskind has specialised in legal technology

Podcast ... 

Richard and Daniel Susskind: "The Future of
 the Professions" | Talks at Google ...

Man regner med at IBMs Watson fra omkring 2017 er på niveau med andenårs studerende på jurastudiet ...

AI og jura emner
How Watson helps lawyers find answers in legal research.
ROSS is an artificially intelligent system that gets smarter each day to advance your legal career.
How will artificial intelligence affect the legal profession in the next ...
Lawyers could be replaced by artificial intelligence. 

Flere Watson emner på en Google søgning:
ibm watson law school ...  

Information om Blockchain

Jura og teknologiforskning i Danmark
Prodekan for forskning, professor dr. jur., medstifter af iCourts og leder pt. forskningsprojekt om computerdrevet juridisk analyse.

Urban Guerrilla

David Kilcullen On The Age Of The Urban Guerrilla 
... keeping the peace in the age of megacities. ... 


Museum of Tomorrow - Museu do Amanhã
The main exhibition takes visitors through five main areas: Cosmos, Earth, Anthropocene, Tomorrow and Us.

Curator of the Museu do Amanhã  
Stuart Candy presents a conversation with Luiz Alberto Oliveira, curator of the Museu do Amanhã (the Museum of Tomorrow) that opened in Rio de Janeiro in December 2015. ... 

Fremtidens hospital

Building the Hospital 2030 
The rise of digital health services
Robotter med kunstig intelligens, automatisering og selvdiagnostisering vil befri læger og sygeplejersker fra administrative byrder. Men i kølvandet på fremtidens hospital følger også behov for større cybersikkerhed.

5 trends der tegner fremtidens hospital
Arubas trendrapport ’Building the Hospital 2030’ er baseret på interviews med førende sundhedsledere – herunder de to anerkendte eksperter Dr. Hugh Montgomery, der er Professor i intensivmedicin ved University College London (UCL) og Fremtidsforsker i digital sundhed, Maneesh Juneja.

1: Selvdiagnosticering: I fremtiden kan du monitorere dit eget helbred, scanne din krop og selvdiagnosticere på en række områder uden besøg på hospitalet eller hos lægen. 
2: Det automatiserede hospital: Når du tjekker ind på hospitalet, bliver du mødt af billedteknologi, der på stedet måler din puls, temperatur og åndedræt. Herefter, inden for de næste 10 sekunder måler sensorer dit blodtryk og EKG. 
3: Fordobling af tid til patientpleje: Læger og sygeplejersker, der i øjeblikket bruger op til 70 pct. af deres tid på administrativt arbejde, vil i fremtiden blive endnu hurtigere til at analysere scanninger og patientjournaler. Det sker via deres mobile enheder, som er med til at frigøre de ansattes tid markant.
4: Digitalt datalager: Digitale enheder sender automatisk data til din digitale patientjournal, så den hele tiden er opdateret med din nuværende tilstand i realtid. 
5: Accept af kunstig intelligens: Kunstig intelligens begynder i stigende grad at få indflydelse på diagnosticering og valg af behandling. Befolkningens opbakning til brug af kunstig intelligens vil stige – forudsat at servicen er designet på brugerens præmisser, fordelene bliver forklaret og at patienten giver tilladelse. ... ... 

Maneesh Juneja - Digital Health Futurist


Gladwell, Malcolm 2002: The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference 
... The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire. 

Will machines replace humans? 
Daniel Susskind confronts this question and three misconceptions we have about our automated future, suggesting we ask something else: How will we distribute wealth in a world when there will be less -- or even no -- work? ... 

AI Legal Entity

Socio-Economic and Legal Impact of Autonomous Robotics and AI Entities: The RAiLE Project  

Singularity, or as some may call it - the specific point in time when advanced technological development, for instance artificial intelligence (AI), leads to the creation of machines that are smarter than human beings - will arrive roughly around the year 2045 according to author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil. [1]

The timeline presented by Kurzweil, can be argued, but not the fact that we are dealing with rapid advances in the fields of robotics and AI. This paper propose the basic questions underpinning this article to be part of a platform for further discussions on the future legal aspects of human-Robotics/AI Legal Entity (RAiLE©) interaction in key areas of our lives.

Initially we look into aspects affecting the workplace and family.

[1] R. Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, New York, NY:Viking, 2005.

IEEE Technology and Society Magazine  
( Volume: 37, Issue: 1, March 2018 )

R. Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, New York, NY:Viking, 2005.

 K. Dautenhahn, "Human-robot interaction" in The Encyclopedia of Human-Computer Interaction, Aarhus:Interaction Design Foundation, 2013. 

 T. Fong, I. Nourbakhsh, K. Dautenhahn, A survey of socially interactive robots: Concepts design and applications, 2002.

T. Fong, I. Nourbakhsh, K. Dautenhahn, "A survey of socially interactive robots", Robotics and Autonomous Systems, pp. 143-166, 2003.

M.B.C. Siegel, N.M.I. Siegel, "Persuasive robotics: The influence of robot gender on human behavior", Proc. IROS 2009. IEEE/RSJ Int. Conf., 2009.

 M. Suzuki, A funeral for ‘Aibo’ robot dogs at a temple near Tokyo, May 2015, [online] Available: ... 

D. McColl, G. Nejat, "A human affect recognition system for socially interactive robots" in Handbook of Research on Technoself: Identity in a Technological Society, IGI Global, pp. 554-573, 2012.

Human-Robot Relationships 
D. Levy, Love and Sex with Robots: The Evolution of Human-Robot Relationships, New York, NY:Harper, 2009.

V. Craw, "French woman wants to marry a robot as expert predicts sex robots to become preferable to humans",, Dec. 2016.

N. Nevejans, "European civil law-rules in robotics" in DG for Internal Policies, Belgium:Brüssels, 2016.

REPORT with recommendations to the Commission on Civil Law Rules on Robotics (2015/2103(INL)), 2017.

"What is LEGAL ENTITY? definition of LEGAL ENTITY", Black’s Law Dictionary Free Online Legal Dictionary, May 2017, [online] Available:


Long wave theory

Pulsation in Human Affairs 
Marchetti, C. 1983: On a Fifty Years Pulsation in Human Affairs. ... pdf

Kondratiev wave  
Kondratiev 1925: The Major Economic Cycles.
In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves" in his honor.

Joseph Schumpeter  (1883 – 1950)

Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Salomon de Wolff argued for the existence of 50- to 60-year cycles in 1913 and 1924, respectively.

Christopher Freeman (1921 – 2010) 
...  Freeman contributed substantially to the revival of the neo-Schumpeterian tradition focusing on the crucial role of innovation for economic development. 
Freeman 1994: Work for All or Mass Unemployment?: Computerised Technical Change in the Twenty-First Century, (co-author with Luc Soete), Pinter Pub Ltd, 1994.
Freeman 1992: The Economics of Hope: Essays on Technical Change, Economic Growth, and the Environment, Pinter Pub Ltd, 1992.

The sixth Kondratieff wave and the cybernetic revolution ... 



Technological singularity

The Singularity Is Near 
Kurzweil describes his law of accelerating returns which predicts an exponential increase in technologies like computers, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence.


Our Accelerating Future
Michael Anissimov ... 

Rethinking Human Enhancement: Social Enhancement and Emergent Technologies. Laura Y. Cabrera ... 

Human nature: how normative might it be?
Bayertz K.
... increasingly far-reaching interventions and manipulations in humans, so that the perspective of a gradual "technologization" of his physical constitution can no longer be regarded as merely utopian.
... Some authors are convinced that this disturbing development can only be halted when an inherent value is (once again) ascribed to human nature.