Scenarioplanning - social futures


Determinationsteori, se

Identifikation af faktorer der er afgørende for samfundsudviklingen, kan opdeles i variable- og invariable determinationsfaktorer.

Variable determinationsfaktorer

Invariable determinationsfaktorer
Dvs faktorer der historisk invariable:


Possible Futures
Identifies a number interacting megatrends, grouped under seven headings:
1: demographics (large, ageing populations);
2: mobility (urbanisation and a growing middle class);
3: society (inequality and unemployment);
4: geopolitics (power transitions);
5: sustainability (resource insecurity);
6: health (shifting burdens of disease); and
7: technology (communications revolution). ... pdf 

Oxford Martin School  
Research and policy unit based in the Social Sciences Division of the University of Oxford.

Conceptual Age

From an Information Age into a Conceptual Age 
“Integrating the Characteristics of the New Coming Technological Age by a Meta-Study,” by Amin Torkaman, examines in some detail the idea that humanity is moving from an Information Age into a Conceptual Age. This term comes from Daniel Pink, but the basic idea is similar to Ernest Sternberg, “Economy of Icons”; Rolf Jensen, “Dream Society”; and Joseph Pine and James Gilmore, “Experience Economy.” ...  

Conceptual economy  
In his book A Whole New Mind, Daniel H. Pink explains how the economy is now moving from the information age to the conceptual age.
Daniel H. Pink  
A Whole New Mind: Why Right Brainers Will Rule the Future.

The Emerging Dream Society  
Dator, Jim, Seo, Yongseok. 2005. “Korea as the Wave of a Future: The Emerging Dream Society of Icons and Aesthetic Experience.” Papers of the British Association for Korean Studies 10:1–21. 

Rolf Jensen, “Dream Society”  
... The second key trend is the commercialization of emotions. It will no longer be enough to produce a useful product: A story or legend must be built into it.
The Futurist, Vol. 30, No. 3, May-June 1996. ...  

Oxford Martin School


Rise of Artificial general intelligence and governance
Growing our collective wisdom to confront the rise of Artificial general intelligence, will require innovating new governance frameworks, processes and tools. Humanity will need to rely on a mix of artificial and collective intelligence.
The “global multi-stakeholder regime complex” currently emerging to govern cyberspace and new forms of distributed autonomous organizations such as the blockchain infrastructure should serve as inspirations.

Artificial general intelligence (AGI)

Converging technologies (NBIC): Nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science. ...

Stepien, Tomasz 2016: Heuristics of Technosciences
... focusing on three predominant theoretical approaches in the philosophy of science and technology:
Technoscience (STS), technology assessment (TA) and converging technologies (NBIC). ... 

Casual layered

Casual layered analysis  
Identifying the hidden layers of cultural changes and pinpointing the contributing factors of cultural changes using the casual layered analysis

The analysis shows that there are some contributing factors such as economy, technology, politics, society, environment, mass media, globalization and migration at the second layer – “social systems layer” – which may trigger cultural changes in first layer “litany”; in addition, in the third and deeper layer two dominant worldviews – materialist/secular and religious affecting the contributing factors in the second layer – were identified. Such worldviews are, in turn, supported by metaphors or perfect stories/myths of the deepest layer. 
Mohsen Mohammadi, Mohammad Rahim Eivazi, Gholam Reza Goudarzi, Einollah Keshavarz Turk. Foresight, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 2018. ... 

Bussey, M. (2014), “Extending the scenario horizon: putting narratives to work”, Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 95-100. 

Feinman, G.M. (2000), “Cultural evolutionary approaches and archaeology”, Cultural Evolution, Springer, pp. 3-12.

Feinman, G.M. and Manzanilla, L.R. (Eds) (2000), Cultural Evolution: Contemporary Viewpoints, Springer Science and Business Media.

Grube, L.E. and Storr, V.H. (2015), “The role of culture in economic action”, New Thinking in Austrian Political Economy, Emerald Publishing Limited, pp. 21-46.

Herman, D., Manfred, J.A.H.N. and Marie-Laure, R.Y.A.N. (Eds) (2010), Routledge Encyclopedia of Narrative Theory, Routledge, Abingdon. 

Causal layered analysis

Inayatullah, S. (1998), “Causal layered analysis: post structuralism as method”, Futures, Vol. 30 No. 8, pp. 815-829.

Inayatullah, S. (2014), “Casual layered analysis defined”,
The Futurist, Vol. 48 No. 1, p. 26. 

Inglehart, R. and Baker, W.E. (2000), “Modernization, cultural change, and the persistence of traditional values”,
American Sociological Review, Vol. 65 No. 1, pp. 19-51.

Milojević, I. (2014), “Creating alternative selves: the use of futures discourse in narrative therapy”, Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 27-40. 

Spencer, F.W. and Montero Salvatico, Y. (2015), Creating Stories of Change: Reframing Causal Layered Analysis as Narrative Transformation, Inayatullah, S. and Milojevic, I. (Eds), CLA, p. 2. 

Wiest, J.B. (2016), The Role of Mass Media in the Transmission of Culture.
In Communication and Information Technologies Annual: [New] Media Cultures, Emerald Publishing Limited, pp. 203-219.

Unholly trinity 
Convergence of economic-, environmental- and energy forces. (Dator 2014: 140). 

Dator, Jim, Sweeney, John, Yee, Aubrey. 2014. Mutative Media: Communication Technologies and Power Relations in the Past, Present, and Futures. New York: Springer Press. ... 

Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies  
Manoa School of futures studies

John A. Sweeney
Smart contract, your wage flows automatically into your Etch wallet.

Futures - The journal of policy, planning and futures studies

School of International Futures  
Gain insight about your future environment: spot upcoming trends and issues, risks and opportunities, and the new players in your field.

Alternative futures

Four generic alternative futures v/Dator, Jim 2018 
As the future cannot be predicted (and it is folly to try) while alternative futures can and should be forecasted and explored, emerging issues are always related to one or more of the four generic alternative futures that (based on years of extensive research) we label “Grow,” “Collapse,” “Discipline,” or “Transform” (Dator 2009).  
How Are Emerging Issues Identified?
Driving Forces, Trends, Emerging Issues, Alternative Futures, and Preferred Futures. ... 

Images of the future v/Dator, Jim 2017 
Fred Polak (1961) established that the “facts” of the future are our varying images of the future. Wendell Bell and James Mau (1971), Elise Boulding and Kenneth Boulding (1995), and others developed the concept of “images of the future” as being the key point of futures studies: futurists do not study “the future.” How could they? The future does not exist. Instead, futurists study (and often produce) varying images of the future, endeavoring to understand where images come from and how they might influence human actions in the present so as to help in the creation of alternative futures. ... 


Bell, Wendell, Mau, James. 1971. “Images of the Future: Theory and Research Strategies.” In The Sociology of the Future, edited by Bell, Wendell, Mau, James, 6–44. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

Boulding, Elise, Boulding, Kenneth. 1995. The Future: Images and Processes. New York, London: Sage. 

Dator, Jim. 2009. “Alternative Futures at the Manoa School.” Journal of Futures Studies 14 (2): 1–18.

Dator, Jim, Sweeney, John, Yee, Aubrey. 2014. Mutative Media: Communication Technologies and Power Relations in the Past, Present, and Futures. New York: Springer Press. ... 

Juul, Jesper. 2004. “Introduction to Game Time.” In First Person: New Media as Story, Performance, and Game, edited by Wardrip-Fruin, Noah, Harrigan, Pat, 131–42. Cambridge: MIT Press. 

Polak, Fred. 1961. The Image of the Future. 2 vols. New York: Oceana.


Social construction of technology (SCOT)  
researchers must look at how the criteria of being "the best" is defined

Case: Den sociale konstruktion af cyklen

Thomas P. Hughes - Society for the History of Technology 
He, along with John B. Rae, Carl W. Condit, and Melvin Kranzberg, were responsible for the establishment of the Society for the History of Technology

Backcasting in transport planning - Joe Jensen, Marie Vang Nielsen 2007 
The potential of backcasting to create a long-term vision and improve coordination across public transport companies in the Greater Copenhagen Area ... pdf 

The sixth K-wave: 2020-2060

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s.

Phase of self-regulating systems 
We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies.

The sixth K-wave (about 2020 – the 2060/70s) ... 

Ayres R. U. 2006. Did the Fifth K-Wave Begin in 1990–92? Has it been Aborted by
Globalization? Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security / Ed. by
T. C. Devezas, pp. 57–71. Amsterdam: IOS Press.  

Dator J. 2006. Alternative Futures for K-Waves. Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security / Ed. by T. C. Devezas, pp. 311–317. Amsterdam: IOS Press.

Glazyev S. Yu. 2009. The World Economic Crisis as a Process of Changing Technological Modes. Voprosy ekonomiki 3: 26–32. 

Grinin L. E. 2006a. Production Forces and Historical Process. 3rd ed. Moscow:

Grinin L. E. 2007b. Production Revolutions and the Periodization of History.
Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 77(2): 150–156.

References ... 

Industry 4.0: Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital ...
redigeret af Tessaleno Devezas, João Leitão, Askar Sarygulov ...

Managing Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Innovations
Converging Technologies in Society
Editors: Bainbridge, William Sims (Ed.) 2006: 

Virtual Sociocultural Convergence
Af William Sims Bainbridge ... 

Unnatural selection: the challenges of engineering tomorrow’s people.
(Healey, P., & Rayner, S. (Eds.). 2008. Earthscan

Future of Humanity Institute

Anders Sandberg

Nick Bostrom

Technology and culture

Impact of technologies on self, society and culture in the 21st century
Fast Capitalism is an academic journal with a political intent. We publish reviewed scholarship and essays about the impact of rapid information and communication technologies on self, society and culture in the 21st century.

The Dissipation of American Democracy in 2016: 
On the Emptiness of Elitism and the Poverty of Populism in the Trump Zone
Timothy W. Luke 2016

Andrejevic, Mark. 2013. Infoglut: How Too Much Information is Changing the Way We Think and Know.  New York: Routledge. 

Luke, Timothy W. 2011. “Blow Out, Blow Back, Blow Up, Blow Out: The Plutonomic Politics of Economic Crisis since 2001,” Fast Capitalism, 8.2 []

Luke, Timothy W. 1999. Capitalism, Democracy, and Ecology: Departing from Marx. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.

Mitchell, Timothy. 2013. Carbon Democracy: Political Power in the Age of Oil.  London: Verso.

Patriotism, Weapons Fetishism and Accountability: An Examination of the U.S. UAV Program
Binoy Kampmark 2015 - 12.1 | 2015

Fremtidsforskning og filosofi

The Neganthropocene by Bernard Stiegler 2018 
Stiegler’s ‘Neganthropocene’ pursues encounters with Alfred North Whitehead, Jacques Derrida, Gilbert Simondon, Peter Sloterdijk, Karl Marx, Benjamin Bratton, and others. ... ...

Benjamin H. Bratton  
...  writing on the cultural implications of computing and globalization.
Benjamin H. Bratton 2016: The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty